The Oscars are notoriously controversial. Each year, at least one winner makes the internet go up in flames, not one of the countless online predictions betting on them. That being said, most winners become pretty obvious before the anticipated day. So, how does one predict these winners? 

There are three major components: Academy preferences, politics and award precedence.  Academy preferences are the typical kinds of movies the academy goes for. These include war films, biopics, one-shot films (such as “Birdman” or “1917″) and, their favorite, movies about movies. Us film bros call these movies “Oscar-bait” films. Examples from this year include “Oppenheimer” (good!) and “Maestro” (bad). 

Politics refers to the specific emotions the public and the academy have about the specific nominees, regardless of their actual work. This includes whether or not a nominee already has an Oscar, how established the nominee’s career is, and—some claim—whether or not the win will help demonstrate political progress in the Oscars. 

But the most important factor is award precedence. Before the Oscars, there are a myriad of other award shows—Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA’s, Critics Choice Awards, etc. The winners of these shows help clue us in on what the academy will most likely choose. 

Criteria established; let’s get into predicting!

Best Picture

The Best Picture winner this year is almost certainly going to be “Oppenheimer.” “Oppenheimer” has won every single major best picture award this year: The Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, the BAFTA, you name it. Christopher Nolan, the director, has yet to win an Oscar, and this being one of his best movies has made the entire film community say, “It’s about time” (ironically, “Oppenheimer” is one of his only movies that is not literally about time). 

Moreover, Oppenheimer is a war biopic. Killer combo. This movie checks all the boxes.

Best Director

Best Director will also probably go to Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer.” Christopher Nolan is widely considered one of the best directors working today, and it’s honestly shocking that in his over 25-year career, he has not won a single Oscar. While many agree that “Dunkirk” is his best movie in terms of directing, “Oppenheimer” demonstrates the impressive vision he brings to life in all of his films. In addition, Nolan has won all the major Best Director awards leading up to the Oscars. 

However, the category this year is stacked, and while it likely won’t go to anyone else, Jonathan Glazer, director of “The Zone of Interest,” and Yorgos Lanthimos, director of “Poor Things,” deserve a major shout-out for having some of the best directing in the 2020s.

Best Actress

The two leading contenders for Best Actress are Emma Stone for “Poor Things” and Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” I cannot emphasize enough how much both of these performances blew me away. 

Emma Stone gave one of her most committed and wild performances as Bella Baxter in “Poor Things.” It’s hard to properly describe it; most just go with: “She really went for it.” 

Lily Gladstone gave a more subtle performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” that isn’t as showy as Stone’s but remains integral to the film. 

The Oscars usually prefer the more “out there” performances, like Stone’s, over the quieter performances, like Gladstone’s. But, Gladstone has the leg up on politics. Stone’s already won an Oscar for “La La Land,” and no Native American person has won an acting Academy Award. If Gladstone won, she would be making history. Because the academy often overlooks performances by Native Americans and BIPOC actors as a whole, it would be awesome to see Gladstone win the well-deserved award. 

The awards so far have been pretty evenly distributed between the two of them. Stone won the Bafta and the Critics choice award, while Gladstone won the SAG award. The Golden Globes are split into two categories—comedies and drama—with Stone winning comedy and Gladstone winning drama. The award can really go either way this year, but I am putting my bets on Lily Gladstone.

Best Actor

The best actor category similarly has two leading performances: Paul Giammati for “The Holdovers” and Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer.” Both performances made their respective movies into the phenomenal films they are. Murphy has the more Oscar-bait-y performance, as he plays a real person, but his performance is also more subtle than Giammati’s. Neither actors have Oscars, so in this regard, they are tied up.

Like best actress, they are also pretty leveled on the awards. Murphy won the Bafta, the SAG award, and the Golden Globe for a drama, and Giamatti won the Critics Choice award and the Golden Globe for a comedy. Outside of these contenders, with Bradley Cooper’s incredibly Oscar-baity performance, I fear the award may, in a shocking turn of events, go to him. Even so, I predict (and really want!) Cillian Murphy to win the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress

The supporting actor categories tend to be where the most surprises arise. Often, the best performance doesn’t win, but the one by a famous actor who has yet to win (example: Jamie Lee Curtis last year). If we’re going by merit and award precedence, Da’Vine Joy Randolph had the most impactful performance, starring in “The Holdovers,” and has, so far, won the most awards.

Emily Blunt could also potentially win for her performance in “Oppenheimer” as she is an acclaimed actress with no Oscars. Her performance was phenomenal, but I still believe that the award is Randolph’s.

Best Supporting Actor

Best supporting actor is going to Robert Downey Jr. for “Oppenheimer.” Not really up for debate. He’s won every award, checks off all the criteria, and his performance is just incredible; it adds so much tension and suspense to the film. It’ll be so awkward if I’m wrong about this, but like…he’s winning.

Best Original Screenplay

The screenplay categories are the most difficult to pinpoint this year. The main contenders for Original are “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Past Lives” and “The Holdovers.” 

Originally, “Barbie” was part of this category and seemed like the favorite to win. It won the Critics Choice award, and considering that Greta Gerwig was probably not going to win any other awards, it seemed like the right time to give her one. 

Barbie is now part of the adapted screenplay category and so we are left with the second most likely winner: “Anatomy of a Fall.” This movie already won the Golden Globe and the Bafta, which makes it the number one choice for the Oscar. But, it is not yet certain. “Past Lives” and “The Holdovers” both had brilliant screenplays that could definitely win the award come March 10. “Anatomy of a Fall” still has the best push and will probably win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Adapted screenplay is easily the most stacked category. The nominees are “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie,” “The Zone of Interest,” “American Fiction,” and “Poor Things.” Every single one of these screenplays deserves to win. 

But I’d argue that “American Fiction” is the only nominee where the screenplay is the strongest part of the film. All the others are significantly improved by their production design, directing, cinematography, etc.; we have the epic visuals of “Oppenheimer,” the real-life Barbie world of “Barbie,” the haunting simplicity of “The Zone of Interest,” and whatever “Poor Things” was—I don’t think any words can be used to describe it, just experience it for yourself (sorry in advance).

“American Fiction” also won the Bafta and the Critics Choice awards. Surprisingly, it wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globe, which “Anatomy of a Fall” won (the Golden Globe has just one screenplay category, no original and adapted). So, I hesitantly predict “American Fiction,” with my second choice being “Barbie.” But, I truly think that any other movie can win, and it wouldn’t be undeserved or a surprise.

Other Categories

We’ve covered the main eight categories, so I won’t go into great detail on the smaller ones. Here are the rest of my predictions:

Best Cinematography: “Oppenheimer”

Best Sound: “Oppenheimer”—though this could also go to “The Zone of Interest.”

Best Editing: “Oppenheimer”

Best Score: “Oppenheimer” (are you noticing a theme here?)

Best Production Design: “Poor Things”—“Barbie” is also likely.

Best Costume Design: “Barbie”—also could be “Poor Things.”

Best Makeup: “Maestro” or “Poor Things.” I’m going to bet on “Poor Things,” not because I think it’ll win but because I don’t like “Maestro.”

Best International Film: “The Zone of Interest”

Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”—could definitely also be “The Boy and the Heron”

Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?”

Best Visual Effects: “Godzilla Minus One”—could also be “The Creator”

The rest of the categories are animated short and documentaries of which I have not seen any, so we’ll leave my predictions there. If I am right about most of these, feel free to congratulate me on campus. If not, forget I ever wrote this. 

All jokes aside, the movies this year are fantastic and I highly recommend everyone go and watch them before the big day.